Syrian Civil War: New Beginnings?

Movement of government, opposition, and Israeli forces since 27 November

While media outlets publish regime change headlines, I am here to point out a quiet yet significant shift in the balance of power taking place in the Middle East. Rather than writing a retelling of the fall of Damascus, I will reveal what this new change means. 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and what remains of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) make up what the media refers to as the Syrian rebels. The fall of Damascus concludes 50 years of Assad family rule. HTS fighters declared an end to Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule and have ceased hostilities with the Syrian government. Former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali said that the remnants of the Syrian government will supervise state institutions until they are handed over to new civilian rule. Both parties are working towards a smooth transition of power to a civilian government, with HTS announcing that refugees abroad can return home. 

Firstly, we must observe that Iran has been checked. Iran was one of the Assad regime’s largest supporters. With the rebel victory, Iran has not only lost a key ally but has been geographically cut off from Hezbollah in Lebanon. It seems that Israel and Turkey have displaced Iranian influence.

While on the topic of losses… Russia’s sphere of influence in Syria has been shattered. HTS is no friend of Russia but has yet to comment on whether the change in status quo will lead to continued recognition of Russia’s lease on the Tartus naval base. Losing their naval base in the Eastern Mediterranean would be a massive blow to Putin’s influence in the area. HTS could do so with little pushback as the U.S., Turkey, and Israel would likely support this move- and there is little that Russia could do about it.

Speaking of Turkey, its status as one of HTS’ most significant supporters leaves no doubt as to its opinion on the matter. As HTS launched offensives, Turkey sent convoys of aid, mainly food, from the Turkish border into rebel-controlled areas. According to both Reuters and the state-owned Anadolu (news) Agency, Turkish construction companies have entered discussions on reconstruction contracts. If stability within Syria can be maintained, refugees may be able to return home. 

Next up, Israel, according to the FT, launched a small incursion into Syria on the 9th of December 2024, with Israeli leadership trying to justify the offensive as necessary to protect the state of Israel to “ensure no hostile force embeds itself next to the border of Israel,” said Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Monday. Israel’s history of support for the rebels turned government no doubt puts into question its motives in opposing Assad.

American leaders have announced that they are remaining vigilant. However, their support for the Kurdish Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) has waned since the fall of Damascus, with President-elect Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio, who if confirmed will be the next United States Secretary of State, signalling their will to leave the SDF to its own devices; the new administration is not willing to commit extra resources in Syria anymore, choosing to focus on checking China and ending the Russo-Ukrainian war. Furthermore, a rebel takeover could see the U.S. offering support to HTS and the FSA if they can somehow influence a change in the status quo over the Tartus naval base. HTS has announced that its aim is to unite Syria under one flag, indicating that a wind-down of American support for SDF could lead to HTS conflict with it, aiming for the re-incorporation of all the territory east of the Euphrates into a new Syrian state.

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